Definition
The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy is a common logical error that asserts that if Event A occurs before Event B, then Event A must have caused Event B. This assumption ignores the possibility of coincidence, a third variable, or a flawed causal link. The Latin phrase means “after this, therefore because of this,” indicating that just because two events occur in succession, one does not necessarily cause the other.
Examples
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Superstition and Illness:
- Fallacious Reasoning: “I got sick after I walked under that ladder. Therefore, walking under the ladder caused my illness.”
- Reality: Illness could be due to a virus, bacteria, or other environmental factors, not necessarily related to the ladder.
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Market Trends:
- Fallacious Reasoning: “The stock market crashed right after a new president was elected. Therefore, the election of the new president caused the crash.”
- Reality: Economic factors, global events, or investor sentiment could be responsible for the market crash, not necessarily the new president.
-
Personal Relationship:
- Fallacious Reasoning: “My headache went away after I drank a cup of herbal tea. Therefore, the tea cured my headache.”
- Reality: The headache might have naturally dissipated over time, coinciding with the consumption of tea.
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc a fallacy?
It is a fallacy because it assumes causation based solely on the chronological order of events without presenting evidence for a causal link.
How can one avoid the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy?
To avoid this fallacy, it is crucial to seek out empirical evidence that supports a causal relationship rather than relying on temporal succession alone.
Can Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc be found in statistical analysis?
Yes, this fallacy can appear in statistical analysis when correlation between variables is mistaken for causation. Proper statistical methods and controls are necessary to avoid this error.
Why is it important to recognize this fallacy?
Recognizing this fallacy is important for critical thinking and avoiding incorrect conclusions that can impact decision-making in various fields such as science, medicine, business, and daily life.
How is this fallacy different from a correlation-causation fallacy?
The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc specifically involves a temporal sequence, assuming causation because one event follows another. A correlation-causation fallacy may not necessarily involve a time sequence but assumes causation merely based on correlation.
- Correlation vs. Causation: Differentiating between a mutual relationship between two variables and one variable causing an effect in another.
- Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc: A fallacy that assumes if two events occur together, then one causes the other.
- False Cause Fallacy: A broader category that includes any reasoning errors incorrectly asserting causation.
- Non Sequitur: An illogical conclusion that does not follow from the premises.
Online References
- Logical Fallacies
- The Nizkor Project: Post Hoc
- Fallacy Files: Post Hoc
Suggested Books for Further Studies
- “Logically Fallacious: The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies” by Bo Bennett
- “An Illustrated Book of Bad Arguments” by Ali Almossawi
- “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman
Fundamentals of Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy: Critical Thinking Basics Quiz
### What is the primary assertion of the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [ ] That Events A and B occurred simultaneously.
- [x] That Event A caused Event B simply because Event A happened first.
- [ ] That Event A always causes Event B in all cases.
- [ ] That Event A and B are independent of each other.
> **Explanation:** The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy asserts that Event A caused Event B simply because Event A occurred prior to Event B, ignoring other possible explanations or evidence.
### How can one avoid falling into the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [x] By seeking empirical evidence for a causal relationship.
- [ ] By assuming all events are causally linked.
- [ ] By ensuring events happen simultaneously.
- [ ] By ignoring the order of events.
> **Explanation:** Avoiding this fallacy involves seeking empirical evidence that supports a causal relationship, rather than presuming causation based merely on the order of events.
### Recognizing the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy improves what type of skills?
- [ ] Skills in persuasive writing.
- [x] Critical thinking skills.
- [ ] Skills in creative storytelling.
- [ ] Skills in technical computing.
> **Explanation:** Recognizing and avoiding the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy enhances critical thinking skills, helping one to make more accurate and reasoned conclusions.
### Which phrase best describes the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [ ] "Correlation does imply causation."
- [ ] "Simultaneity means causality."
- [x] "After this, therefore because of this."
- [ ] "One event predicts all outcomes."
> **Explanation:** The phrase "after this, therefore because of this" accurately describes the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy, illustrating the erroneous assumption that temporal sequence implies causation.
### In which context is the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy commonly noticed?
- [x] Superstitions and personal anecdotes.
- [ ] Mathematical proofs.
- [ ] Scientific experiments with strong controls.
- [ ] Object-oriented programming.
> **Explanation:** This fallacy is often found in superstitions and personal anecdotes where causation is wrongly assumed based on the temporal order of events without sufficient evidence.
### What is a critical error in the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [ ] Believing in the uniqueness of each event.
- [ ] Ignoring the possibility of a sequence of events.
- [x] Assuming causation based solely on chronological order.
- [ ] Applying the scientific method rigorously.
> **Explanation:** The critical error lies in assuming causation solely due to the sequence of events, without considering other potential causal factors or evidence.
### Which fallacy is closely related to the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [ ] Ad Hominem Fallacy
- [ ] Appeal to Authority Fallacy
- [x] Correlation/Causation Fallacy
- [ ] Equivocation Fallacy
> **Explanation:** The Correlation/Causation Fallacy, which involves mistaking correlation for causation, is closely related to the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy, both assuming a false causal link.
### What field benefits significantly from recognizing and avoiding the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [x] Scientific research.
- [ ] Decorative arts.
- [ ] Fashion design.
- [ ] Sports management.
> **Explanation:** Scientific research benefits greatly by avoiding this fallacy, ensuring conclusions are based on rigorous evidence rather than incorrect causal assumptions.
### What does empirical evidence refer to in the context of avoiding this fallacy?
- [ ] Anecdotal stories and testimonials.
- [ ] Statistics interpreted without controls.
- [x] Observation and experimentation data.
- [ ] Hypotheses without testing.
> **Explanation:** Empirical evidence involves observation and experimentation data, which is crucial for establishing a true causal relationship and avoiding erroneous conclusions.
### Can coincidence be an alternative explanation for events assumed to be linked by the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?
- [x] Yes, coincidence can explain the temporal sequence without causation.
- [ ] No, coincidence never plays a role in event sequences.
- [ ] Both events in sequence must have a common cause.
- [ ] Coincidence is a scientifically invalid concept.
> **Explanation:** Coincidence can provide an alternative explanation where two events occur sequentially without one causing the other, which is an important consideration to avoid this fallacy.
Thank you for delving into the intricacies of logic with our investigation of the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy. Developing strong reasoning skills is key to sound decision-making and critical analysis.
