What is Altman’s Z-Score?
Altman’s Z-Score is a formula used to predict the probability of a company entering bankruptcy within a two-year period. Developed by Edward I. Altman in 1968, the Z-Score formula combines five financial ratios using several balance sheet values and corporate income figures to produce a single score. The model takes into account profitability, leverage, solvency, liquidity, and activity ratios to gauge the financial health of a business.
Z-Score Formula
The original Z-Score formula for publicly traded manufacturing companies is as follows: \[ Z = 1.2(TA) + 1.4(TE) + 3.3(EBIT) + 0.6(ME) + 1.0(SA) \]
Where:
- TA = Working Capital / Total Assets
- TE = Retained Earnings / Total Assets
- EBIT = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets
- ME = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities
- SA = Sales / Total Assets
Ratios breakdown:
- Working Capital / Total Assets: Measures liquidity.
- Retained Earnings / Total Assets: Measures profitability and leverage.
- EBIT / Total Assets: Measures operating efficiency.
- Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities: Measures market perception of the company’s financial risk.
- Sales / Total Assets: Measures asset utilization.
Zones of Discrimination
The Z-Score is typically interpreted in the following manner:
- Z > 2.99: Safe Zone - Low probability of bankruptcy.
- 1.81 < Z < 2.99: Grey Zone - Moderate risk of financial distress.
- Z < 1.81: Distress Zone - High risk of bankruptcy.
Examples of Altman’s Z-Score Calculation
Example 1: A Manufacturing Company (Publicly Traded)
A manufacturing company has the following financial ratios:
- Working Capital / Total Assets: 0.15
- Retained Earnings / Total Assets: 0.25
- EBIT / Total Assets: 0.20
- Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities: 0.04
- Sales / Total Assets: 0.85
Plugging these values into the Z-Score formula: \[ Z = 1.2(0.15) + 1.4(0.25) + 3.3(0.20) + 0.6(0.04) + 1.0(0.85) \] \[ Z = 0.18 + 0.35 + 0.66 + 0.024 + 0.85 \] \[ Z = 2.064 \]
With a Z-Score of 2.064, the company falls into the Grey Zone, suggesting a moderate risk of financial distress.
Example 2: Another Manufacturing Company (Publicly Traded)
Financial ratios for another company are:
- Working Capital / Total Assets: 0.10
- Retained Earnings / Total Assets: 0.15
- EBIT / Total Assets: 0.05
- Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities: 0.02
- Sales / Total Assets: 0.60
Calculating the Z-Score: \[ Z = 1.2(0.10) + 1.4(0.15) + 3.3(0.05) + 0.6(0.02) + 1.0(0.60) \] \[ Z = 0.12 + 0.21 + 0.165 + 0.012 + 0.60 \] \[ Z = 1.107 \]
This company’s Z-Score of 1.107 places it in the Distress Zone, indicating a high risk of bankruptcy.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of Altman’s Z-Score?
Altman’s Z-Score helps investors, creditors, and authorities assess the financial health of a company and predict its bankruptcy risk within two years.
Can Altman’s Z-Score be applied to all companies?
The original Z-Score model was designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies. Different versions of the model adapt the formula for other types of firms, including private companies, non-manufacturing companies, and emerging markets.
How reliable is Altman’s Z-Score?
Altman’s Z-Score has shown high predictive accuracy. Studies reveal it has about 70-80% accuracy for predicting bankruptcy within two years, but results may vary across different industries and economic environments.
What are the limitations of Altman’s Z-Score?
The score primarily applies to mature manufacturing companies. It may not yield accurate predictions for new, diverse, or service-based companies. Additionally, the Z-Score formula relies on historic financial data, which may not always reflect future conditions.
Related Terms
-
Z-Score: A statistical measure that quantifies the distance (in standard deviations) a data point is from the mean of a data set.
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Corporate Failure Prediction: The process of using financial analysis and models to estimate the likelihood that a company will fail or go bankrupt.
Recommended Online Resources
- Investopedia: Altman’s Z-Score
- Corporate Finance Institute: Altman Z-Score
- Harvard Business Review: A Critical Look at the Z-Score Model
Suggested Books for Further Studies
- “Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt” by Edward I. Altman and Edith Hotchkiss
- “Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation” by Stephen H. Penman
- “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham with commentary by Jason Zweig
Accounting Basics: “Altman’s Z-Score” Fundamentals Quiz
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